Twenty years after seceding from the state union with Serbia, Montenegro is seen as a Western Balkan frontrunner for EU membership but remains marked by corruption, unresolved divisions and Serbia's political influence.
The anniversary celebrations will take place in an atmosphere shaped by the country's reputation as the Western Balkans ' "high achiever" in the EU accession process.
Over the past few years, Podgorica has managed to kick-start its stalled EU accession talks, speed up reforms and position itself as the frontrunner in the region to join the EU at a time when Brussels has renewed its interest in bringing new members into the bloc.
"It's easy to be the star pupil in a classroom of bad students," Daliborka Uljarevic of the Centre for Civic Education in Podgorica told DW.
Her remark reflects the broader regional context. While much of the Western Balkans has stagnated, or even regressed, on the path toward the European Union , Montenegro has managed to capitalize on the geopolitical momentum created by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the EU's renewed focus on enlargement .
Referendum on independence Montenegro declared independence from Serbia in 2006 after a tightly contested, high-turnout referendum in which 55.5% of voters backed leaving the union with Serbia.
For the next 14 years, the country was ruled by the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) led by longtime strongman Milo Djukanovic.
Over the years, Djukanovic's government faced repeated accusations of corruption and links between political elites and organized crime, while critics increasingly described Montenegro as a "captured state." The DPS eventually lost power in 2020 after months of mass protests and church-led rallies against a controversial religious property law, in what became the first democratic transfer of power since independence.
Divisions over identity Montenegro's political scene is still marked by a pro-sovereignty/pro-Serbian divide that has shaped the country since independence.
One side emphasizes a distinct Montenegrin national identity and statehood, while the other sees Montenegrins as part of the broader Serbian national body and favors close political, cultural and religious ties with the country's northeastern neighbor.
According to the latest census from 2023, around 41% of citizens identify as Montenegrins and about 33% as Serbs — a balance that strongly shapes elections and coalition politics.
Officially, these two political camps have reached a consensus on Montenegro's goal of joining the EU.
Unofficially, says Aleksandar Popov, that balance remains fragile and vulnerable to influence from Belgrade.
"Pro-Serbian forces […] can always obstruct the European path on a signal from Belgrade — and this is already happening," said Popov.
'We loved you more than you loved us' Relations with Serbia have therefore remained one of the most sensitive political issues for Podgorica.
This was clearly illustrated by the reaction of Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic to an invitation to attend Montenegro's independence anniversary celebrations.
How Belgrade views Montenegro Both Uljarevic and Popov believe official Belgrade has never fully accepted Montenegrin independence. According to Uljarevic, Serbia still behaves toward Montenegro "as if it were a temporarily lost territory." Popov believes that for this reason, Belgrade will continue doing everything it can to slow down Montenegro's progress along the path to the EU.
"Serbia does not want Montenegro to join the EU because it would undermine Vucic's main argument that 'Europe doesn't want us.' If Montenegro enters the union, it will become clear that the real problem lies elsewhere," Popov told DW.
The same old problems Nevertheless, Uljarevic warns that beyond Montenegro's positive image as a regional success story are many of the same problems that have dogged Montenegro since independence.
"Corruption is still everywhere," said Uljarevic. "Some would even say it is more expensive now than before, because there are many more actors in power trying to satisfy their party and particular interests," she said.
At the same time, she believes Montenegro should use the current momentum of EU integration as an opportunity for deeper institutional and social change, rather than merely as a geopolitical shortcut into the bloc.
"Our absolute interest is to become an EU member state as soon as possible, but it is equally important that the process is carried out properly, and that we do not enter the union as a defective state," she said.
Edited by: Aingeal Flanagan
