The put bets would be a bet on a yield spike since bond prices (value of the TLT fund) move inversely to rates.
Options action ignited in products linked to the U.S. bond market Friday as Treasury yields surged to the highest in over a year for the 10-year and 30-year interest rates.
More than three times the past month's average daily volume traded in the long-term Treasury fund, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) on Friday, with a heavy bias towards put contracts positioning for lower prices and higher yields. Of the 1.4 million contracts traded, almost 380,000 were puts exchanged at the ask or above, indicating they were likely purchased. By comparison, under 240,000 calls were bought.
The put trades would be a bet on a yield spike since bond prices (value of the TLT fund) move inversely to rates. Some of the biggest trades of the day Friday were betting on a big rate spike and subsequent move lower in the fund.
One trader loaded up on 15,000 of the June 75-strike puts in a $2 million bet the fund will drop another 11% through next month June 17. If that trade pays off, the TLT ETF would be trading at its lowest-ever value since its launch in 2002.
Another trader expressed strong conviction for an equally big move, but in either direction, and with a lot of time for the trade to play out. They bought a straddle using 3,000 of the 84-strike puts expiring Jan. 18, 2028, and another 3,000 contracts of the 84-strike calls of the same expiry. It's a total $3 million position that pays off in the event TLT goes below $74 or above $94.
The trades show the drama that's building in global bond markets following a jump in CPI last week, crude oil above $100, and the end of Jerome Powell's tenure as chair of the Federal Reserve.
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