When President Xi Jinping met US leader Donald Trump in Beijing on Thursday, he posed a big question: Can China and the US avoid the “Thucydides Trap”? It’s a phrase that sounds academic, but it goes to the heart of Beijing’s ambitions for their relationship.
Politics Explainer Facebook X LinkedIn Email Link Gift Expand Donald Trump shakes hands withXi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on May 14.
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Send a tip to our reporters Site feedback: Take our Survey New Window Facebook X LinkedIn Email Link Gift By Rebecca Choong Wilkins May 14, 2026 at 9:03 AM UTC Updated on May 15, 2026 at 3:43 AM UTC Bookmark Save When President Xi Jinping met US leader Donald Trump in Beijing on Thursday, he posed a big question: Can China and the US avoid the “Thucydides Trap”? It’s a phrase that sounds academic, but it goes to the heart of Beijing’s ambitions for their relationship.
The term was popularized by Harvard political scientist Graham Allison in the early 2010s, drawing on the ancient Greek historian Thucydides. His argument: When a rising power challenges an established one, conflict inevitably follows. Allison’s research found this pattern played out repeatedly across history and he used this framing as a lens to examine the US-China rivalry.
